25 May 2020 Tagged in: data

Analysing the Covid-19 data

A summary and extrapolations of the UK's Covid-19 data

Analysing the Covid-19 data

As with many people, I've been looking at the Covid-19 data. I've analysed the number of deaths, as the number of reported cases is strongly influenced by the number of tests performed. These figures will be updated daily, as more data comes in.


There have been deaths reported in the UK, up to .

Based on ONS data for excess deaths, I estimate the true figure of Covid-19 deaths to be .

Projecting forward, I estimate there will be total deaths by .

Reported deaths, by country

This graph shows just the number of deaths reported in each country. It will be an under-estimate of the true impact of Covid-19, as many people who die from the disease will do so without a formal diagnosis.

As the epidemic accelerated in different countries at different times, the horizontal scale in this graph is number days since ten Covid-19 deaths were reported in each country.

Total deaths in selected European countries

Excess deaths in the UK

This data comes from the ONS, NISRA, and NRS, so covers the whole of the UK (see data sources below).

Excess deaths in the UK

From week 12 (week ending 20 March 2020) until week ending , there have been approximately excess deaths, based on the average for the previous five years. In that period, the UK reported Covid-19 deaths. In the last three weeks for which excess deaths have been reported, the excess deaths have been about times higher than the reported Covid-19 related deaths. (For the week ending 5 June, there were 2067 Covid-19 related deaths, but only 780 excess deaths over the five-year average.)

The UK has reported deaths up to . Using the scaling factor above for deaths since , I infer that there have been total deaths so far.

Deaths per day

These figures are based on a seven-day moving average. Again, the horizontal axis shows the number of days since ten reported deaths in that country. (Note that, between 22 and 26 May (days 73 to 77 of its epidemic), data on deaths from Spain had several large adjustments to totals.)

Prediction of future deaths

I can use the data on daily deaths to predict the number of deaths in the UK in a few weeks. The UK's daily deaths trend was very similar to Italy's, despite a large correction on 3 June.

The UK's average death rate is now the same as in Italy on . If I use the last days of Italian data as a projection for the UK's death rate, the UK will report deaths on (day of the epidemic).

Using the excess deaths scaling from above, that will translate into Covid-19 deaths total.

Lockdown dates

With the conversation moviong towards the easing of restrictions in the UK, here is a comparison of when lockdown measures were lifted in different European countries. Note that this graph using the number of new cases per day.


European data on deaths comes from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

Population data on excess deaths comes from:

You can download the source code that generated these figures.